If we take the average forecast of five agencies (Energy Aspects, PIRA Energy, IEA, OPEC and EIA) for each of the following items;
…and then drag OPEC crude oil production flat forward from October 2018 (as reported as secondary source in OPEC’s November report); then we arrive at a global oil over supply of 1.2 million b/d for 2019.
HOWEVER: The OPEC supply of 32.9 million b/d for October 2018 includes Saudi Arabia at 10.6 million b/d, Libya at 1.1 million b/d, Iran at 3.3 million b/d and UAE at 3.2 million b/d.
For 2019 one could easily assume that these countries will produce the following:
Saudi cuts 0.5 million b/d to 10.1 million b/d, Iran drops by 0.5 million b/d to 2.8 million b/d (they produced 3.8 million b/d in 2017), UAE cuts back 0.2 million b/d to 3.0 million b/d (the country produced 2.9 million b/d in 2017) and Libya drops back 0.3 million b/d to 0.8 million b/d (which was the countries production in 2017). The sum of these cuts from OPEC countries amount to 1.5 million b/d. These are all very plausible numbers and the result would then be a 0.3 million b/d stock draw in 2019 instead of a 1.2 million b/d stock build…